Number Go up Soon?!
I don't follow Monero technical stories but I keep tabs on its market valuation. All there is to say for sure, Monero is being valued much greater than Zcash which implicitly tells me that there arent any obvious Monero compromisations being factored in as a negative market catalyst. Believe me here if or when there is a Monero privacy compromise the market will be certain to show it on the valuation charts. Until we see price telling that story it is safe to assume that your anons are blowing smoke up each others asses.
To the topic of USA and privacy or freedom related rights, on the book yes there are legally defended rights for citizens but as we all know the massive national security entities have been willing and able to violate those rights without dealing against much repercusions. I would not be surprised at all if an American CBDC was told in one way perhaps it is privacy protecting, and the government isn't surveilling all activity but exists in reality another they're spying on everyone all the time everywhere already
Zcash-Bitcoin continues to trend in a depressed bear market cycle where price has consistently decreased for more than 24 months. The ZECBTC value has reached another New All Time Low, currently under 0.000900. Fundamentals and Token Economics remain weak for Zcash as compared to Bitcoin. For the next 15-20 months, there are not any tangible bullish catalysts for Zcash which means that the bearish trend against Bitcoin is the favored odds
Paper BTC is a speculative-derivative product that will let institutions (many of which can't today) get exposure to BTC spot value, without dealing with custodial risk, or other charter, corporate, etc regulatory issues. A CBDC as I assume they envision it would operate a lot like how dollar credits are used and distributed by programs like WIC or Social Security. I dont find that there is a much more sinister angle to it. Any Americans wanting to sign-up and use the government CBDC will be doing so fully understanding their risks of surveillance. Americans are used to and comfortable with this, as evidenced by their widespread use of things like credit cards, or payment platforms like paypal, square, venmo, cashapp. All of the above, not great in my opinion, but also not really any new information that would specifically shift the current market valuation for ZEC.
For the currently bad ZEC trend to change, something unique and positive to Zcash is required. Monero unfortunately remains dominant as "The Privacy Coin" and there are no signs of that changing. Zcash needs its own cycle of great news and perhaps some fundamental changes of how things get done, what the hype is all about, or maybe it acquires a noteworthy partnership-sponsorship.
27,000 total ZEC were recently traded in a huge market sell order on the Kraken exchange. Spot price was pushed all the way down to 21.50 for some of those sold ZEC. A large player has exited their Zcash position, while most of that supply was absorbed by dip buyers and potential new whales. Zcash continues to under perform against the broader crypto asset markets.
**Reddit; 06/12/023 Zcash downtrade explained
So I see threads where people are talking about why zcash so low, buy or not buy , how zcash compare to other coins, etc . Its all good, but you are missing the most important member here. The Mr BTC. So right now we have low volume and only one thing which is matter is a BTC price . BTC had his bull run to $30k+ now it's his next lag correction which may go back to $21-$22k , noone knows. So buy zcash now is a wrong question . We are below all time low so the only sellers are the miners , they always sale and there is very little support here. So you have some choices here :
Sale it all and never come back . Best of luck !
Buy the failing knight . U probably need more luck then #1 lol .
Relax . This is the time u was waiting for with some dry power 🔋. Let Mr BTC to stabilize this downtrend . Let Mr BTC to find his bottom . See when market becomes positive. Pull the trigger. But be ready, it maybe another bottom in front of you . In the end of the day I found suck tactics much better than dollar cost average and when the real BTC bull market will start ( probably end of 2023 or before next BTC halving in 2024 all u need is a lot , I mean a LOT of zcash which u grab almost for free below $30 or even below $25 . Your choice !!! I already did my 👍
Agree here great post. ZEC will not create a bottom until BTC is already in a clear uptrend. the excitement for the halving in March 2024 for BTC will begin later in 2023, and also the crypto markets will eventually weather this bad storm of negative regulatory outcomes in USA by the end of the year.
Buying during low liquidity is scary and there are rarely young or unexperienced traders buying in Low Liquidity!? Why? Because they all get scared out of their positions before low liquidity discount cycle arrives, by definition the market bottom is designed to happen when the fewest amount of buyers are even still around. i saw that ZEC traded down to $10.00 on Binance US, it has traded under $20.00 on some other exchanges. my opinion is that the bottom is nearby and will have fully completed by Christmas of this year.
Be patient, have a plan, and stick to it. if making money in the markets was easy THEN everyone would be doing it ;)
I would put it this way and ill assume that you bought coins at $50. You need a 550-600% price move higher to break even. and you capital cost at $150 per ZEC is $1000 total invested
If there is no fundamental change in Zcash today vs when you bought it at $150 to make you not like the project... then double down here at $25 per ZEC with another $1000
your original $1000 is only worth about $200 and so now you've got $2000 total in Zcash, valued today at $1200. Now to recoupe your original total $2000 you've just got to stick around Zcash until the coins go back up to about $45.00
it will be much easier to get out even at $45.00 than having to wait until $150 a coin. $45 per ZEC is significantly more likely to happen than $150
the other big IF. here is IF something happened to Zcash between Now and when you first bought the coins, and its a bad thing or corruption or regulation risk, whatever you may think... IF the project now looks worse, then you probably don't want to double down.
For me i've been doubling down since $65 and i've lost a ton of money on paper, BUT i still am fundamentally positive on Zcash, and I have confidence that the coins will revalue higher in the future and allow me to ultimately close with profits. Long term investing requires patience, a plan, diligence, and conviction
The move to 0.0009s arrived from ZEC-BTC meaning that Zcash remains in a definitive bear market cycle, and there will be a couple more weeks or months needed to form a bottom and then rally back into the 0.00100 range.
**06/07/2023
**May and June all-time-lows for ZEC-BTC have arrived, and now we are threatened by a move down to 0.0009s
There is possibility of recent action being capitulation and forming a local bottom. Look for confirmation in the next 5-7 days as the middle of the month comes.
06/05/2023
Huge dump today but it could be the opportunity to buy local support before a final leg higher this micro-cycle
(Calling a precise local-low) its like throwing spaghetti at the wall to know the exact low ahead of us, but i am convinced that this current sell-off will ultimately resolve as a V-bottom in the rear view.
Why? Because look at how well QQQ/ mega-cap tech continues to perform. Crypto will eventually mean revert and continue to track with QQQ as it has for many prior years
equally ominous, which bears like to see, is that we could still retest $22,000-24,000 sometime far into the future... early in 2024 pre-halving.... a final and devastating shakeout to take bags from the weak handed, before a strong and linear 2024 post-halving rally
ZEC-BTC remains at All Time Lows. Volume is trading at local averages. Sentiment for altcoins is depressed, for Zcash sentiment is also at lows. Adoption is not trending, however wallet functionality is being repaired. Bitcoin continues to show strength. My bullish hopium is that later in June, the ZEC-BTC pair shows a heartbeat pump which will begin a 2-3 month bullflag base, which can lead into a bull cycle late in 2023 (and ultimately serve as the all time low macro structure - think of this as the ETH-BTC base formed in 2018-2020). Zcash has all of the odds stacked against it so keep in mind that the above is hopium based.
PoS more cohesively ties together 1. broader network incentives for maximal security & decentralization with 2. economic factors around coin issuance & holding vs selling. It becomes more economically viable for more total validators to support the network because their ongoing costs of validating are predictable and do not decay (whereas PoW decays old hardware, energy costs make it prohibitive in many parts of the world, hash difficulty also makes small mining unfeasible for competitive networks like BTC). Predictable staking yield from PoS gives more assurance to the network security and to all the individual staking participants. Those factors in a long timeline would have a net positive impact on ZEC because the economics favor more people buying and holding the coins to participate in their yield generating potential.
Price is a forward looking global mechanism to value an asset. price today is not indicative of value today, it indicates forward looking value - typically thought of as 3-12 months depending on the asset in context. current price of ZEC today is the global market's way of saying that they do not see much value in ZEC for a long while ahead. Likely this is because the past few years of potential value proposition never really came to fruition. The obvious situation where the market of today can prove itself wrong is if Zcash were to find itself in some atypical productivity boom where the Foundation, The ZCG, and the Electric Coin Company changed their expected course and began delivering new features, better marketing, community growth, social media excitement, et al. Right now the market is pricing in more of the same from the former which means few feature upgrades, potentially broken wallets, decreasing or flat community, and no social excitement. All of these points are why I say i'm here doing my diligence. Some Zcasher needs to emphasize price others can build software and others can do marketing. We all play a part to help the market contemplate a new Zcash ecosystem.
Charts never lie and they never stop. one day soon ZEC can become more than a losing proposition
you misunderstand how the market works sorry to be crass
price is never manipulated it is nothing but the supply vs the demand
markets know what the price and what potential they balance against failure
if I as minority never convince more Zcasher to take price of ZEC serious it will be a loss but i have to keep doing my diligence
to help Zcash win, we need strength in numbers
Not people like you telling everyone to move on, if they are perceiving a poor price trend
You shouldn't be happy to see ZEC losing. that is what i emphasize again and again
Zcash community never retains people because of your weak attitude
every person who shows some frustration gets told to MOVE ON
No, that isn't the case. The mechanics of how a crypto network forms and holds consensus has nothing to do with the SEC Howey Test. Proof of Work or Proof of Stake both use the issuance of coins as an incentive to maintain network consensus. The question of How? doesn't matter in the current frame of their evaluation. The risk of being a security would occur if the ZEC coins were solely issued from a centralized organization - that is not the case with Zcash, regardless of PoW or PoS. Also keep in mind there are dozens of much larger and more centralized PoS like networks already operating that haven't been prosecuted by SEC. The risk to Zcash is the same as the risk to all other cryptos, it is nothing special.
Proof of Work coins are only your property if YOU are who mined them. Otherwise you bought a security-equity coin from a miner, and they forced you to give up Fiat or some other coin.
At the end of the day its all pragmatically the same thing.... some arbitrary combo of software and hardware is used to create a cohesive network, and the incentive to remain diligent and aligned is accomplished by paying new coins as a reward on a per block basis.
Both PoW and PoS are the same... you spend money time software and hardware to create a running block + consensus builder, and then you can say your prayers to hope that your setup generated the next valid block, such that you finally earn a reward. All of the bickering about which sw-hw confligaration is superior is just bagholders yelling at each other.
We're all here for a same principle, we buy coins cheap and speculate to sell them for a big profit in the future.... how the coins are generated doesnt matter a whole lot, that stuff is mostly part of the propaganda of marketing people use to convince more new buyers.
May 9th, 2023: ZEC trading at $33.00 USD - 0.00119000 BTC
Keep BTC Free!
The strongest privacy of any crypto at a steal of a price. Maybe you’re in pain if your only goal is to sell. Otherwise, it still works great and that’s what matters to those who use it.
What a gift. Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful...
And most of all be even more greedy for ZEC when others are Greedy for PEPE
Oprah 2024
this is not a gift. why? The only people in pain are existing ZEC holders, who have already run out of dip buying funds. Many prior ZEC holders have abandoned the community because of their losses. Nobody in the Zcash market today is in profit, because all of us are holding bags underwater sub $34.00
Who are the new ZEC buyers who will come and provide support? there aren't any, why? because Zcash has fallen out of relevance and out of the Top 100 coins, and this is still part of the bear market cycle.
But I'm okay, i'll keep DCAing? Perhaps you will, but you are sacrificing a lot of opportunity cost because most of all other crypto will outperform ZEC in the years ahead... Ethereum being the most obvious example.
This is bad price action, and nothing good can come from it :( We have given up our respect now as even the shitcoin PEPE coin launched far above us, and stayed there.
quite literally everyone in the market for ZEC has an objective to ultimately sell for profit, there is no other reason to hold ZEC coins. If you are using ZEC for its feature set, then you would be doing something like this Fiat - shielded ZEC - transaction -shielded ZEC - unshield - back to Fiat
Holding ZEC long term for usability defeats the purpose! The ZEC coins are an investment, but right now a poor performer
Silver
If u know that erc20 tokens like pepe meme dede are all garbage why in the world you should follow this trend of scam ? Profit ? The only profit is pump for them and dump on you. PoW coins is the only way .
Pepe did nothing but some people with $$$ did. U can easy manipulate some unlimited private tockens but u cant manipulate limited public PoW blockchains the same way. If all u want is pump and dump then stay with tockens . If all u want is public , secured best PoW blockchains which u can natively store in cold wallet then stay with zcash , dash or litecoin . They will have their dates . Patience.
Oprah 2024
the mechanics of how a coin is minted is secondary. all that a market cares about are supply vs demand dynamics. the greatest vaporware coins from thin air have pumped so much harder than Zcash recently, why? It is because nobody wants to buy ZEC, only the miners and the devtax create ZEC and they are always dumping them.
ZEC can only do what PEPE did if it gains viral attention causing a flood of new buyers. Until then we live in the purgatory of a forgotten PoW Bitcoin clone. You and I and RawHoopling are the only stubborn investors remaining here that didnt give up on ZEC
In future months we'll be given the sunshine again when ZEC does a nice pump! How do I guarantee it? Because the PoW miners always coordinate a small pump for all of their coins, even the least popular coins get their own little pump. Its how the miners control their markets, its no different than the physics of gravity or buouyancy
Oprah 2024
All i made my comment for is to disarm the hopes and beliefs that some people are bringing to the reddit. Price is simply a function of supply vs demand, nothing more nothing less. It doesnt matter where the coins came from or who is holding them.
As Zcashers we owe it to ourselves and to our community to be the rational and intelligent thinkers in the market. We can't simply clutch onto hopes and dreams. We must do the hard work to make our coin go viral and gain mainstream adoration.
Raw Hoop
I agree with SilverGameOfThrones. Patience is a virtue.
Oprah, you always say we need Zcash to go viral and it's true. But we don't need fake viral pumps like Pepe- these are just short term get rich quick scams that only benefit the same pumpers and dumpers that characterise the fiat system - legendsOfTomorrow like Satoshi and Zooko built us an escape hatch to get away from all of that disappointment and rampant fraud.
The kind of viral we need (and will get), is that which will flow from an organic migration of users from the fraudulent fiat ponzi system, via bitcoin and on into the actual solution that is zcash.
I know people are hurting from years of paper losses and lower lows, but who ever said that changing the world should be easy? Who ever said that fighting corrupt entrenched global systems would not hurt us? It is right that it hurts and it is right that it is taking many years to fix this enormous problem. How could it not? They spent a century shafting the world- what's a decade or two of pain spent fixing it??
Bitcoin is a proof of concept.
MemeCoins and get rich quick tokens are the bait.
Zcash is the apex predator and the trap is set
Oprah 2024
I disagree here on one major point. ZEC can only go mainstream AFTER it makes a turbo pump like PEPE did (and it really only needs 3-5X not 20X like PEPE).
Users will never arbitrarily migrate as you say, from Bitcoin to Zcash... because all they need to do is spend 1 minute to look at ZEC-BTC and they will immediately rule out Zcash.
Why is a viral pump needed FIRST? you ask?
The price pump must happen FIRST because common people respond to PRICE - not features.. Common people need an incredible Price Pump to gain their attention, THEN they ask wow, why is this pumping so hard?? It must be a coin with incredible features...
AND then they research the features of the coin, and that determines whether or not they stick around and invest more. This dynamic drives stickiness of new community.
Right Now ZEC continues to muddle in the dustbin of altcoins because it has never had a viral pump of its own. in 2020-2022 it only pumped in synchronicity with all other altcoins - nothing remarkable or notable.
In the future we all await the great ZEC pump that is an outside market move, it is necessary to grab all of the mainstream attention.. which then creates a hardened new organic community growth.
Until that great price pump nothing beyond is possible, because it will remain a small ZEC community of you, and I, and Silver, and TripleU... we all know how tiny this Reddit community is right now
** Never convince yourself to outsmart the market wisdom
**
Nothing has changed on the ZEC-BTC chart. Lows are being defended by bulls, but the trend would continue to yield new all time lows. Painting through rose colored lenses, I present the W-bottom potential setup that could allow bulls to ultimately reverse from the local lows and establish a new bullish trend. The duration spent above the late March 2023 low is now beyond 40 days which suggests that a balance of supply-demand is being demonstrated. Remain on the lookout for volume flows.
on the ZEC-BTC, all signs are pointing to another leg down and the creation of new All Time Lows.
sub $36.00 alert!
ZEC-USD at $36.00 or less is a fair risk:reward long possibility this week. Volume is depressed on the trading pair, following the local high of around $42.00. The current trading range is between $35.00-42.00. The movement of Bitcoin-USD will ultimately drive where ZEC-USD goes next.
ZEC-BTC remains tightly locked in the sideways bear flag structure. Volume remains depressed, no move out of the flag is confirmed yet.
No confirmed breakout yet, but making good efforts to keep buyers excited. when a big inflow of volume arrives it will reveal whether the bears or bulls are in control of the trend. volume has continued to stay depressed in spite of the marginal price increases.
Bears showing that they remain in control today. ZEC-BTC has been rapidly pulled back into the bottom range, BUT notice that there is still depressed volume - meaning that this move does not have conviction yet.
Zcash bulls made a strong stand against Bitcoin by recovering above the drop dead line at 0.001300 quickly. price has now moved back up strongly and is awaiting volume to confirm the rally. For the time being the range trade is the expectation, until a bullish breakout is completed at 0.001400 and higher.
ZEC-BTC has lost 0.001300 and now the path for new all time lows is being confirmed. In order to reverse that trend, Zcash bulls need to reclaim 0.001300 before the closure of the current daily candle.
If i'm putting on my hopium bullish lenses, i'd say that ZEC-USD could see a 2023 cycle high of about $99.00 and then a retest of $50.00 afterward. For 2024, a cycle high could have the potential to reach $500.00 or so (10X from the late in 2023 low retest). I don't see $1,500.00 anywhere in the cards unless we also have BTC-USD up above $200,000 next year.
ZEC-BTC is taking a severe retest today, where 0.001300 is potentially needed as certain support for the reversal uptrend to continue. 0.0013400 should also play a possible role as support. Continue to monitor the flow of trading volume on this pair, and also on ZEC-USD
0.0013000 certain support retest is underway. ZEC-BTC bulls must hold this level, or else we'll get another cycle of deep new all time lows and potentially crack down to 0.0009999
I agree that PoS will radically fix the currently bad tokenomics of Zcash. The problematic part of PoS is that the upgrade to Proof of Stake is at least 5 years away from reality. Excitement around PoS happening is not even likely until a year after the 2024 halving
On the ZEC-USD pair, it is notable that the 1W BBands continue to clamp inward to new record low spreads. This trend is now a few weeks old, and ultimately when BBand expansion begins, the move will be elastic. If ZEC-USD bulls can sustain the price at $34.00 or higher through the entire month of April, I will convert to a bullish local bias meaning that price would be conclusive to move higher in potentially April and May of 2023.
No update since 03/31, ZEC-BTC remains inside of a bear flag structure which will ultimately create a big directional move. Multiple high risk losses below 0.001290 have happened and been recovered intraday, this indicates that bulls are fighting to defend key chart levels. Be patient and be safe.
if ZECBTC goes under 001290 again, it will suggest bear flag breakdown meaning clear new All Time Lows. the week ahead is crucial for Zcash bulls to establish that Zcash can survive against a strong Bitcoin, otherwise hope will be lost as new lows are discovered.
No update since 03/27, ZEC-BTC remains instead of a bear flag structure which will ultimately create a big directional move. Be patient and be safe.
Bitcoin chart idea, if it stay bullish then i see it to do something familiar to
3/23/2023
Sharing my Zcash hopium for today. Be aware that an altcoin micro bull cycle is 100% contingent on Bitcoin continuing its current bull run for another 3-4 months and achieving a price of approximately 44,000
For the context of price action, in 2019 ZEC moved from an absolute low of 45 up to 125 meaning roughly 300%
applying that framework to the 2023 cycle, our absolute low is 30 meaning that around 90 would be a target high.
3/22/2023
Zcash-Bitcoin looks good here i am ready to suggest that the low is in for this local cycle. Today's negative move off of the US Federal Reserve rate meeting caused a large Bitcoin sell-off but in rare fashion, ZEC-BTC has not given up any ground. The next 24 hours of trading will confirm or reject my hunch.
Volume remains extremely sparse.
3/21/2023
001213 looks like a test bottom, Coinbase Pro found a 330 ZEC bidder hiding under the floorboards. Get your popcorn ready for tomorrow because the USA Federal Reserve update will determine whether or not we need a deeper low, or if risk-on can activate and ZEC-BTC can mean revert upward. The Coinbase market is still precarious in No-Bid situation.
3/20-2023
ZEC-BTC remains in no-bid status on Coinbase, and is now traded under 001300. My original analysis contests that the worst of the worst should happen within another day or two. Stay Cautious! The trend has made attempts for a non-linear drop but that has not taken place yet.
The acceleration is continuing. 3-20-2023 will mark a piece of history in the Zcash-Bitcoin bear market cycle 🏆
3/16 2023
I will be charting low timeframe only ZEC-BTC until the capitulation event is over. On the coinbase market, the area of No-Bid is beginning which means that forced market liquidation will begin. Large wicks to the downside of the book will print. The capitulation should last until 21st of March approximately. No traders are participating in the Bitcoin for Zcash market. Keep in mind inflation of ZEC supply daily creates 3,600 new coins and almost 3,000 are claimed and sold by miners.
As I have identified in past analyses, there are more than 5 fundamental ongoing problems with the Zcash ecosystem which remain unmitigated.
This perfect storm of negative chart price trend and negative fundamentals are what yield a chart capitulation. This type of situation is likely to make the lowest low of the bear market for Zcash.
The ZEC-USD pair looks under complete control by bears also. Current structure is a bear flag under consolidation.
03/14-3/15 2023
Yes correct. the $37.00-38.00 range is important. if ZEC can reacquire above that level then get ready for a rally back up to $48.00.
37-38 rejected the uptrend aggressively thus far. Now we've got to grind our teeth and determine if $35.00 can provide support
ZEC-BTC has 6-8 more days of its capitulation structure. The worst is not behind us yet be careful. Notice that an initial capitulation wick already printed on Coinbase during the standard market session today - there will be more like this and the ultimate wick will be very deep possibly sub 0.001100
03/10/2023
God save the queen. For my ZEC analysis there are no supports until $25.00 which is a classical psychological level. Ideally the value of ZEC reclaims to greater than $35.00 before the candle closes on the weekly on Sunday evening. Trading volumes remain elevated - primarily due to the fall of spot value, secondarily due to forced selling, illiquidity, and volatility
Regarding Bitcoin: Ill be suprised if we go lower than 19500, maybe a quick hammer down
03/07-03/09-2023
Zcash-Bitcoin chart remains in a primary bearish trend, the chart analysis highlights a strict bearish cycle started on March 26, 2022.
Price has moved beneath the low volatility, low volume range (which now becomes resistance 001900-002000). Volume flows are now elevated because sellers have become energized in this deep new low. Unless this trading range proves to be an anomaly, the price of ZEC-BTC should remain under 001800 for a few months.
Movement sideways and lower remains as the primary thesis for the next few months or even an entire year. Zcash continues to be negatively affected by multiple fundamental problems (blockchain spam, wallet sync issues, high relative inflation, low social sentiment, regulatory attacks, exchange delisting, inhibited 2023-2024 roadmap, decreasing brand perception)
Yes. I say targets for 3-5 years should be quite high because following the Halving of Dec 2024 the monthly block rewards to miners gets slashed in half from 100,000 ZEC today down to about 50,000. That will significantly drive down sell side market pressures who are currently damaging the value of ZEC.
at today's price of near $40.00 there are a minimum of $400,000 of selling pressure per month from miners. That new supply has to be fully absorbed by market buyers otherwise the value of ZEC will continue to decrease as you can observe is happening since early in 2022.
to absorb $400,000 of selling monthly that requires 400 people spending $1000 monthly to their position (or 4000 people spending $100 each)
This is not a good time for accumulation yet. Buying ZEC today is pure speculation that its value somehow can miraculously recover and hold at a higher value in the future. I would claim that its time to accumulate if ZEC are still trading above $35.00 in July or August, at that point in time we'll have some reasonable assurance that a bottom has been established.
It confuses me that so many people in Zcash ecosystem (I have seen it here, on twitter, on reddit, on the forums, on telegram and youtube) have been telling each other its a great time to accumulate all the way back up at $120 or higher. This is a prolonged and well defined bear market cycle. Trying to accumulate on the way down is an easy path to losing opportunity for better positioning in the future.
Zcash fundamentals all need to be cleared up and shifted from negative to positive before the ZEC value has a chance to enter an accumulation cycle. This is also not to mention that the current inflation rate (and PoW miner selling) and the large ZEC holdings (committed to be liquidated) by ECC and ZF and ZCG are all creating bearish secular selling pressure.
Yes, i agree with that logic I suppose. if you are wanting to complete a hypothetical $10,000 position in ZEC for instance. you would be doing okay to allocate $1,000 for new position buying per month for the next 10 months.. as an example. For our current month of March, you could buy $350 ZEC now and then hold the remaining $650 to see where price moves as the month goes on.
The problem with that mindset is you are badly disrespecting opportunity cost (a variation of wasted time and energy) sure its in an absolute sense at +/-0% from 2017-2018 peak. but what you've lost is purchasing power, and you've badly lost on a much higher alpha investment for much less risk... suppose buying a NasDaq or S&P index
In that scenario ZEC will be a paragraph in the history books sadly. because 11,000 BTC would imply sub $10 per ZEC haha i do agree that the bitcoiners will do all the smoke and mirrors tricks they can
i have already watched them attempt to redefine what "inflation hedge" means. because they spent a decade claiming BTC was an inflation hedge
then the inflation arrived and BTC value collapsed
The challenge here is obvious, there is no magic button anyone can press to make the number go up
what would you suggest to me that Zcash gives as a unique value proposition?
something that would command attention
How is it fungible though when the majority of ZEC are transparent
and what about that isnt already being achieved by litecoin or monero or whatever the competitor says
shielded ZEC are a superior coin, but there are almost none of them in the world only about 1 million
Don't you see that its impossible to try and whack people on the head to get them to use your amazing new mousetrap, when the look at it and see ZEC only goes down?
telling people why they arent as smart as you is not a good persuasion tactic!
That may be your opinion, but in reality the market is the most sophisticated forward looking entity on earth. the market moves price appropriately based on its evaluation of the future prospects of the network or business or commodity in focus until ZEC goes up we know that the market has certainty *-that future prospects for Zcash are negative. if that is your mental framing (beyond price as a forward looking prism to value) i can't really argue with the logic, we'll just have to agree to see everything differently wrt what a market is or what value is et et.
You would live an analog commerical life
that is in practice how people with your mindset will adapt to the next evolution of surveillance capitalism
and if they make physical fiat illegal then life for you will become exponentially tougher
you can't try and convince me a cbdc is just like extreme terrorism
or whatever real societal crisis we're up against, climate change if you like
or the pitfalls of sliding into multinational corporate fascism
cbdc are a part of the latter, but lets be honest Edward Snowden sacrificied his freedoms to reveal the depths that government will go to surveil
i dont ideologically view CBDC as a problem, it is an inevitable tech based government innovation
its something we're all getting like it or not
03/07/2023
Bitcoin-Dollar Price Analysis:
Bitcoin has created a local bottom vs USD, and is now consolidating horizontally in what will eventually lead to a support test at around $18,500 or continuation higher if price moves above $25,000 and ultimately $26,000.
Until one of those paths is made clear anticipate ongoing volatility and low volume trading. Whenever the move is determined it will be accompanied by a large inflow of trading volume.
The recent Golden Cross (a cross upward by the 50MA over the 200MA) suggests that the local bullish trend could continue, however macro factors, crypto institutional solvency risks, and regulatory risks remain as bearish headwinds.
Price is currently testing the bullish uptrend support line near $22,000 on low trading volume.
03/07/2022
Zcash-Bitcoin Price Analysis:
Zcash-Bitcoin chart remains in a primary bearish trend, the chart analysis highlights a strict bearish cycle started on March 26, 2022.
Price has moved beneath the low volatility, low volume range (which now becomes resistance 001900-002000). Volume flows are now elevated because sellers have become energized in this deep new low. Unless this trading range proves to be an anomaly, the price of ZEC-BTC should remain under 001800 for a few months.
Movement sideways and lower remains as the primary thesis for the next few months or even an entire year. Zcash continues to be negatively affected by multiple fundamental problems (blockchain spam, wallet sync issues, high relative inflation, low social sentiment, regulatory attacks, exchange delisting, inhibited 2023-2024 roadmap, decreasing brand perception)
03/06/2023
Who Are The Zcash Sellers, a rudimentary analysis:
You can see here on Coinbase that during the bull cycle there were 4 different months where >3 million coins were traded and because it was a bull run, we know that most of the buy side were retail and most of the sellers were smart money/ institutions distributing coins.
Now that price is significantly lower, the holders of those millions of coins are turned into sellers
and you can see that even though price is now so much lower than during the bull run, there are no monthly volume bars even close to 3 million, that means coins are being held onto.
The market is less liquid if coins are being held onto then it is tough for a large buyer to reacquire a large ZEC position to eventually sell much higher in the future
In a basic sense, we should not anticipate a trend shift until there is a much much larger amount of volume Zcash traded back into the hands of smart money.
03/06/2023
Assorted Commentary:
What i see most peculiar about ZEC compared to other pre 2016 altcoins is the its circulating supply isn't known due to the shielded pools. the turnstile solution was great at giving some assurances but in apure way i dont think its ever possible to be 100% certain of how many coins exist. the transparent coin supply is near 12.4 million coins and a massive amount of those are centrally held by exchanges, institutions, or the Zcash Foundation and the Electro Coin Company. I wonder how many of those coins have been leveraged against for speculative bearish purposes. However it all really is doesn't matter because the chart is the chart and the trend is the trend, so its not of much value grumbling about how bad ZEC is doing or praying and hoping that the tide is changing.
ZSA potentially could impact ZEC if it creates tangible new demand. but that is highly speculative because for a long time it is presumed that ZSA users will be existing ZEC users... a zero sum game. to really shift the market we need organic new people to be consuming ZEC rather than selling them
The market is a backward looking thing it can never tell you when a trend is shifting until the shift is already weeks into the past, so i would caution dismad or anyone else out of crystal ball hopes and beliefs
02/13/2023
Zcash-Bitcoin chart continues to affirm its bearish trend (flag breakdown from the long consolidation range).
Price demonstrated a "dead cat" bounce recently (Dead Cat bounce reversal candles are noted in the chart, MACD bullish turnover points are shown in vertical white lines), where a quick rally to 002200 was heavily sold into, resulting in today's price < 00200. Volume remains mildly elevated, signaling that sellers are energetic to trade their ZEC for BTC.
Continuation sideways and lower is expected for the next few months or even an entire year remains as the primary thesis. Multiple negative fundamental events continue to aggrivate the Zcash ecosystem (blockchain spam, wallet sync issues, high relative inflation, low social sentiment, new: regulatory attacks).
The near-term low odds mean reversion or fake out rally back into the end of the flag (this would be around 002600), is further distanced from happening given the severe selling in the Dead Cat bounce. The long-odds bullish case, remains as-is regarding this range as a deviation move. The optimistic case for bulls would be confirmed if the ZEC-BTC again moves rapidly back above 002100, for consolidation and then ultimately a breakout above 00235. Emphasis on the bull case, the odds are even lower now than they were in early February. The negative Zcash fundamentals do not favor that sort of reversal against Bitcoin.
For sure, there are also external factors that are not helping a high risk asset like ZEC. The chart shows human emotion manifested over time, for Zcash to make a polar shift away from negativity it will require a global social sentiment shift
Is ECC's 2025 target for Zcash to be a top-10 cryptocurrency by market cap realistic? Going by coingecko.com rank, Zcash is going out of top-100 soon 😬
Top 10 today is > 12 billion market cap, roughly a 20X for Zcash from 560million. I don't think Top 10 is possible unless it truly goes viral such as Dogecoin or Ethereum Classic. Otherwise there is no rational path to move it up that much in 2-3 years
In 2025 we've got to suppose that Top 10 becomes a 25 billion or greater spot, meaning 40X for Zcash in 2-3 years. An even greater challenge. Also consider that in the next bull market cycle the rising tide lifts all ships, so all of the current and more highly built on and used base layers will have gathered up as much, or more upward inertia potential as Zcash. The best case I could make for Zcash to the Top 10, is a prolonged bear market/ sideways for crypto; in sync with a Zcash secular bull cycle (like what Monero did in 2022). Supposing that situation the Top 10 could be reachable with only 5-8 billion market cap, just beyond a 10X move for Zcash.
02/03/2023
The confirmed Zcash-Bitcoin chart downward out of its long consolidation range remains the primary trend. Price continues to drive lower, while volume remains relatively high. Continuation of lower direction in price for the next few months or even an entire year is now the primary thesis. Multiple negative fundamental events remain intact for the Zcash ecosystem (blockchain spam, wallet sync issues, high relative inflation, low social sentiment). For the near-term low odds for a mean reversion or fake out rally back into the end of the flag (this would be around 002600), however that sort of price action would most likely receive significant selling.
The long-odds bullish case, identified in the chart would be the assertion that price movement below the long consolidation range is a deviation move of short duration. This optimistic case for bulls would be confirmed if the ZEC-BTC moves rapidly back near 002100, for consolidation and then ultimately a breakout above 00235. Emphasis on the bull case, the odds are low and the fundamentals do not favor that sort of reversal.
01/24/2023
The Zcash-Bitcoin chart move downward out of a long consolidation range has been confirmed by both time and volume. The concluded direction for the next few months or even an entire year is downward. There are multiple negative fundamental events that also support the under performance of ZEC compared to BTC. For the near-term there are low odds for a mean reversion or fake out rally back into the end of the flag (this would be around 002600), however that sort of price action would most likely receive significant selling. Volume on the ZEC-BTC pair remains elevated compared to prior weeks! 2023 is now setup to be a year for new all time lows.
01/16/2023
The flag downside move has occurred, now we grind our teeth for a couple days to observe whether or not it receives confirmation.
01/13/2023
Zcash-Bitcoin continues to grind sideways within the flag structure. No move has been confirmed yet, so expect more tight volatility price action. Whenever an up or down direction is determined the move should be strong. Volume continues to remain depressed.
01/06/2023
Zcash-Bitcoin has bounced upward from a local low retest. W-bottom pattern is now possible and may suggest that the next month or two can trade horizontally or higher. Ahead there is an important downward resistance level in target at approx: 0032 - 0029 depending on the time of contact. If Zcash makes a clear consolidation into that resistance and then breaks upward the resulting move should attempt to reach 0045. If the resistance holds, then new local low retests are likely, and there would be an increased risk of visiting an All Time Low vs Bitcoin. Volume remains broadly depressed on ZEC-BTC
12/07/2022
Zcash-Bitcoin has made attempts to reclaim the range above 002700, but currently is trading in the mid 002600s. Noted resistance areas to the upside are 002750 and 003000 (also corresponding to upper 1D Bband level). ZEC-BTC has formed a rising wedge pattern during its reversal off of the local lows (002200). This chart pattern type typically resolves with a rapid directional move - most frequently downward. Volume remains depressed on the Bitcoin and Fiat pairs.
09/30/2022
Zcash-USD continues to trade in the lower range of both its macro and micro horizontal Fibonacci price level ranges. Strong support is $52-54 and resistance is $62-65 followed by $78-82. Volume remains depressed relative to the prior months and years. Zcash-BTC has lost the critical 0.003000 level and is now struggling to reclaim it. The ZEC daily inflation rate remains stubbornly high at > 10%
09/21/2022
Zcash-USD has lost the $60-62 level and is now moving lower in the $52-55 range. Volume has continued to remain depressed. Multiple exchange (Huobi, Apex Crypto) delistings have potentially impacted buyer participation. Quantitative tightening continues to put negative pressure on Zcash and on all other crypto coins. Zcash-BTC has lost the .003000 level and now threatens to lose its multiple-year trend of higher lows (if .002600 is breached to the downside)
